Gold Crosses $3,300 an Oz

Gold has now crossed $3,300 an Oz, as the best 'safe haven" asset in backdrop of quickly weakening global economy.

Gold is now raising even more faster, as the global Central Banks cut interest rates due to fear of recession, trade wars and geopolitics.

Central Bankers are panicking. 

The US Dollar has crashed, with DXY at 99.09 and fallen from 110.1, and 10% crash from just two and half months ago.  This means the US Dollar has lost 10% of its purchasing power in just 90 days. This even when short term interest rates are at 3.75%-4.0%. When the short term interest rates go down below 1.0% which is highly likely within next 12 months due to darkening economic backdrop in US. 

This would crash the value of DXY even further to as low as 80.0. That is good for both Gold and US exporters (Boeing, Starbucks etc.), but inflationary to US consumers (bad for Walmart, Amazon etc.). 

Gold At $3,200 an Ounce

Gold has formed a new base, at $3,200 an Oz. 

Chaotic rollouts and withdrawals of Tariffs by the US Admin, have made the markets chaotic and the already over valued stock and bond markets in the US, are now completly controlled by the President - this is very dangerous as the financial markets in the US are no longer independent or free markets - and are totally dependent on the government's, especially Presidential decisions. 

This is the reason the US dollar is collapsing, having declined 10% in value within 3 months. 

While this could actually be the plan by the US government to devalue the Dollar, to bring back jobs to US, and raise American Exports (like Boeing Airplanes, Hollywood Movies, or even Starbucks Coffee) all of which would  benefit from a weakened or falling Dollar.

This very same reason, is good for Gold as well - Gold would benefit from a falling or weakened Dollar, and therefore Gold prices would now go up even much higher.

Gold Proves It's Resiliance

After the famous US 'Liberation Day'  Tariff Annoucements, on 2nd April, 2025 -

• Global stock markets have been pummelled by double digit crashes within 3 days
• $10 Trillion Dollars lost in global stock markets, with $6 Trillion Dollar lost in US alone, within 2-3 days 
• For first time in history, we are seeing Multi-Trillion dollar daily losses in stock markets 
• Globally and in US, all key indices have entered bear market territory with a few days
• Though the markets are slightly recovering by Tue, 8th April - this is more like a bear market bounce and not really a new bull market - Bear markets can have huge head fake rallies, compared to bull markets, so one needs to be careful.
• Crypto Currencies have also taken a huge hit 

Even in this scenario, Gold is holding high with only ultra-small minor corrections, and holding the neck high above $3,000 per Oz.

This proves the resiliance of Gold.

For the first time after 1971, Gold has become 'Flight to Safety' or 'Safe Haven' when everything else is falling like Gold historically was during the Gold Standard era before 1970.

Gold at $3,000 an Oz

Gold seems to have now found a new floor within this month - this time it is $3,000 an Oz. 

We have been following Gold, since it was $2,100 an Oz two years ago and we can see that the psycological level of $3,000 has been breached successfully.

Nevertheless, Gold is still cheap currently, when compared historically as Gold prices were much higher in 1970s and even in 2000s when Dollars and other fiat currencies had more value. 

Gold has found a floor at $2,900 per Oz even with High Bond Yields

Gold is becoming a killer asset. 

I've never made such a bullish statement on Gold in atleast the last 10 years, until today, and have always been cautious in last 10 years as Gold went through some real challenging phase after 2013 upto 2019 and then again from mid-2021 to late-2022. 

However now I can say, we are at the cusp of a Precious Metals Super Bull Cycle.

• US debt is out of control
• Developed economies in deep services inflation 
• Global stock bubbles like the AI Bubble etc. 

While as a Gold investor I'm actually very HAPPY to see all this. 

All this global indebtedness, equity stock market bubbles like the AI bubble and the resulting chaos is very good for Gold.

Gold loves chaos.

Gold goes past $2,700 per Oz

Gold has now gone past $2,700 per Oz for Dec 2024 futures, and all this is happening after interest rates have started falling globally. 

Globally among the developed countries - their governments, most of their corporations and citizens have accumulated huge unsustainable debt, and hence central banks can't keep interest rates higher for longer. Already, central banks like the US Federal Reserve have done a lot of damage to its citizens, corporations and government by keeping interest rates unsustainably higher for longer, and now are forced to rapidly cut interest rates to reduce further damage. The effects of the damage itself which is already done, will only be visible in coming months. 

Hence we can expect further jumbo interest rate cuts in coming months, across the developed world which would put upward pressure on gold prices to raise higher.

The fact that just the first interest rate cut in the US, has pushed the gold prices to $2,700 per Oz, and further maniac interest rate cuts which are nevertheless coming, given huge debt levels - gold prices would only be under pressure to go higher above $3,000 per Oz pretty soon.

 

Gold has found a strong floor at $2,500

Since March - April of 2024, globally the financial markets have seen extreme increase and decrease in rate of volatility (as measured by financial market volatility index - VIX), like it happened in mid-April or in early August. Even during these periods Gold held steady.

Also not to mention that Gold has been mostly trading above $2,500 per Oz during this period since March -April 2024.

To be sure, while Gold has been strong, staying above the milestone of $,2500 per Oz, if there is a major event like a financial crises, or a global recession, or a sudden surge/spike in inflation, or higher interest rates staying higher for longer than anticipated - under all these circumstances financial markets will be impacted not mildly but significantly with dire consequences in  the aftermath. Gold however will be mildly impacted, and might go below $2,500 per Oz, or in a worst case scenario all the way down to $2,000 per Oz which is a 20% drop consistent with past US recessions like in 2008 or 2000-2001. 

However the good news is if Gold investors can ride this period without panicking, Gold has potential to be a multi-bagger - go 5x-6x higher in the aftermath of this financial event.  Between 2001 to 2011 in aftermath of 2000-2001 recession - Gold went up from $250 (yes two hundred and fifty only) per Oz in 2001 to $1,950 per Oz in 2011 - a 9x-10x multi-bagger in just one decade.

Time To Buy - Gold and Silver Mining Stocks

Now that Gold has broken above $2,300 an Oz in April 2024, and remained steady at these levels.  $2,300 an Oz, is the new base price for Gold.

Silver also has broken above $30.0 an Oz in May 2024, silver has broken above this price first time after 2012-13, after more than 10 years. Now $30.0 an Oz, has become the new base price for Silver.

As a gold and silver metal investor, happy to see these breakout levels for both these precious metals, both of which are in the beginning of a major bull market, which will go into mid 2030s, considering the magnitude of inflation, particularly hyper-inflation which has been created globally. The inflation story is not ending, and inflation will only get bigger as creating inflation is the only solution governments have globally to solve problems.

While gold and silver metal can be bought even now, as they are going even higher for rest of this decade, and into mid 2030s, one sector where price is still cheap in gold and silver mining stocks. Gold and silver mining companies stocks have never been this cheap, and last time more than 10 years ago during 2011-2013 these mining stocks had peaked and since then had fallen. 

Now with record inflation globally since 2020 Covid pandemic, and prices of everything from cars to food to hair cut increasing in double digits globally, in a high inflationary cycle since 2020-2021 - precious metals which protect purchasing power are the ultimate inflation protection assets. 

Therefore its high time to buy these gold and silver mining company stocks, which will only go up as more new gold and silver need to be digged from earth, and current levels of above ground gold and silver metals are decreasing given very high demand from top buyers of Gold and Silver globally - China, India, Singapore, Turkey etc. Even in western markets, demand for gold and silver bars from retail investors has gone up recently in 2024. Costco was able to sell $800 million in Gold bars in 2 months over retail counter, after they introduced 1 Oz gold bar as a product over retail counter at their Costco wholesale stores. Once Hedge funds and other large institutional investors in western countries who have noticed this surge in interest in gold and silver get in, that's when even gold and silver mining company stocks will take off, along with the actual metals.

 

Gold Settles Above $2,300

Gold prices have now crossed $2,300 per Oz. 

Gold Has Not Reached Peak Levels

 Gold price are above $2,100 per Oz for few weeks now, and even touched $2,200 per Oz levels last week. Already many so called pundits and experts are saying Gold has reached all time highs, peak levels etc.

This is absolutely wrong. Gold is very cheap now.

Let me explain -

When Gold prices reached $1,900 per Oz 13 years ago, in 2011 that was much higher value for Gold in 2011 itself, then its current nominal value at $2,100.

Because in 2011, purchasing power of $1,900 worth of money was much higher then the value of $2,100 worth of money now as paper money gets inflated and loses its purchasing power over time.

Similarly when Gold prices had reached $850 per Oz in 1980 that was the all time high for gold, priced in USD.  Because the purchasing power of what all you could buy in 1980 with $850, was much higher then what little you can buy with $2,100 today.

Therefore in real purchasing power terms Gold is still very cheap. 

Gold Steadies Above $2,100 For A New Bull Market

Gold has steadied above $2,100 per Oz for more then a month now. This at a time, when interest rates have been highest since 20 years, for more than a year now in US, EU and UK. Even Japan is about to increase interest rates, for first time since 2007.

Yet, Gold typically does well when interest rates start falling. Just imagine how Gold would perform when interest rates do start falling, as high interest rates cannot be held on higher for longer, without some credit crises or financial crises happening, which will cause interest rates to fall.

So Gold is at the cusp of a major new bull market. 

The previous major bull market for Gold, which lasted from 2001 to 2013 - increased the price of Gold from $250 per Oz to $1,900 per Oz - and the bull market which started in 2001 has continued in other currencies beyond 2013.    

Gold has broken $2,000 per Oz

Gold has crossed record psychological number of $2,000 per ounce on 27th Oct 2023. The recent war like situation in Middle East, and possibility of this war escalating has driven up the Gold prices to this record levels.

What is even more important, is that Gold has risen to these record levels, when US dollar is strong. Yes US dollar index is still at high levels, with USD index at a high level of 106, highest this year as money is getting out of riskier stocks and bonds, and getting into cash.

Just imagine, when Gold can do so well, even with a high US dollar index, what will happen when even USD index drops below 100. Gold will go ballistic and go all the way to $2,500 per ounce. 

Those who have been ignoring Gold, still have a chance to buy now as Gold will go even higher from current levels.

Gold dropped below $2,000

Gold which raised to $2,000 an oz, in February this year and stayed at above those levels since then has recently again dropped below $2,000 in past week.

This presents a wonderful chance to accumulate gold. 

Gold has crossed $1,900 Oz

Gold has quietly crossed $1,900 an oz, since the current year 2023 has started. Now Gold is very close to its all time high of $2,050 reached in March, last year immediately post Russia's war with Ukraine started. However last year's was a knee jerk reaction, but this year seems to be a more sustainable rally for Gold. 

In global currencies, outside US dollar, Gold has already sustainably crossed all time highs quietly.

Gold rises above $1,800 per ounce

Gold price has gone past another important technical level, which is $1800 per ounce today.  

This is because the interest rate increases will be moderated in the US as per Federal Reserve Bank of the US, and which in turn is due to inflation easing in the US. Why is inflation easing, is another topic.

However this is a positive for gold prices, and gold prices are now just $200 below the most important $2,000 per ounce levels. Once gold prices cross $2,000 per ounce levels, and if importantly this time it sticks or stabilizes around at $2,000 per ounce level (Previously in August 2020, and also in March 2022, gold prices had briefly crossed $2,000 these levels). That will be a new normal for gold.

That is a level at which gold prices would reach their historical peak levels, will stabilize and shoot up even higher to new levels never seen before.

Gold and Silver Break Above Important Technical Level

On Nov 9th, Gold moved above $1,700 per ounce, which is an important technical level. To be sure, Gold had reached up to $2,050 per ounce in late March of this year. Gold had similarly moved above $2,000 per ounce in Aug 2020. 

During the initial part of this century, Gold increased from around $240 per ounce in 2001, all the way to $1,900 per ounce in 2011, a 646% increase.

Same for Silver, which has already crossed above 3 month high levels of $22 per ounce, and is all set to cross $26 per ounce which was its highest ever level reached, in March this year.

Gold price is at Rs.1994.8 per gram

Gold price has been at Rs.1994.8 per gram for past 4 days, just short of Rs.2000 per gram.

However the Indian currency Rupee has strengthened during last 4 days ( due to large Coal India IPO which is bringing in a lot of foreign money rising the demand for Rupee thus strengthening this currency). Due to this strengthening of Rupee, further price increases in Gold measured in Rupees is getting hit or suppressed. Hence only if Rupee weakens after few days or few weeks because of noisy demand from exporters (Infosys, leading IT exporter is already crying that the strengthening of Rupee is hitting its profits and saying that strong Rupee will kill exports). We will continue to hear more such noise from exporters.

Like I have written before, every time Rupee strengthens, the exporters like Technology companies and Textile companies will start crying and make noises. Immediately the Reserve Bank of India will intervene and weaken the Rupee again. This cycling will continue.

So one point is clear. Rupee or for that matter no Asian Currency will strengthen. All Asian governments have only task, weaken their respective currencies and encourage exports to save jobs.

So given this fact, there is only one way route for Gold to go up and up.

September gold import soars 30 pc to 34.8 tonne - The Economic Times

September gold import soars 30 pc to 34.8 tonne - The Economic Times

Gold ETF collections up 90 pc to 12.87T in Sept - The Economic Times

Gold ETF collections up 90 pc to 12.87T in Sept - The Economic Times

Gold price crosses Rs.1950 per gram

Gold price which was hovering just above Rs.1900 per gram for last 4 weeks, has made a big upward move on a single day Wednesday Oct 6th, to cross Rs.1950 per gram.

With the 9 day Navratri or Dasara or Dussehra festival starting this Friday Oct 8th, and with Diwali or Deepavali the festival of lights on Nov 5th early next month, Gold price has every reason to cross record Rs.2000 per gram very soon. Just 6 years back Gold price was Rs.500 per gram, now it is about to touch record Rs.2000 per gram very soon.

As written in my earlier article below, with all major Asian countries deciding to devalue their currencies to encourage exports, with paper money reducing in value - There is only one way for Gold price -> Go Up.

By the way after the Diwali festival ends on Nov 6th, immediately on next day Nov7th the Karthika Masam (auspicious Hindu month in Hindu calender particularly in South India) starts. The Karthika Masam will last until Dec 5th, and is an important Hindu marriage season.

With important festivals and marriage season back to back.....Gold Price looks set to go way up in coming weeks.